银行业钱荒与人民币国际化的前景

题图：Cheva 用DALL E3 AI创作

最近，我在油管上看到了一些UP主都在讨论一个话题。这些up主都在关注中国的金融动态，原来是国内的银行业出现了钱荒的情况。我虽然不是从事金融行业的，但是我也对这件事情感到好奇，于是我就去了解了一下。

我发现，这件事情能够被外界知晓，是因为在银行之间有一个专业的拆借市场。在这个市场上，各家银行之间可以相互借贷款项，并支付短期的利息。这些短期的贷款期限大约都在一天左右，所以就叫做隔夜拆借。这个市场的利率是对外公开的，有人查到，在不久前，这一利率一度上涨到了年化50%，也就是说，以年利率50%的高额利率来借一天的钱，还借不到。这说明银行现在流动性非常的紧张。

出现这个消息，对资金需求非常大的股市和楼市，无疑是一个沉重的打击。如果不暴跌就已经是超常表现了，所以更不用指望它能够大幅反转了。实际上，不暴跌也就意味着有价无市而已。

那么，为什么会出现这样的钱荒呢？众多的分析都指向了同一个原因，就是前不久出台的今年年底增发1万亿特别国债的政策。这笔特别国债的目的，是用来给地方政府补债务窟窿的，因为地方政府的财政收入，主要靠卖地的土地财政，而现在房地产业萧条，土地财政已经枯竭。

这又造成了一个非常有趣的对比，同为世界前两大的经济体，美国政府大量发行国债，造成的却是史无前例的通胀，而中国政府增发了区区1万亿的特别国债，就造成了史无前例的钱荒，也就是一种非常明显的通缩现象。

为什么会差别这么大呢？这还是与两国消化国债的方式不同。美国国债最大的买家是美联储，而美联储作为美国的央行，是可以直接印刷出美元的。所以，美国发的国债越多，美联储印刷的用来购买国债的美元也越多，这也造成了通货膨胀。但是，美元有二战以后长期形成的世界货币的地位，它的通胀可以由全世界来帮助消化，所以像这样搞，在短时间内也不会引发国民党金元券那样的纸币不值钱的恶性通货膨胀。

而中国，如果由央行直接购买财政部的国债的话，那么很可能在短短不到一年的时间内，就可以重演解放前夕，国民党撤离大陆前，发行的金元券的闹剧了。所以，中国的货币人民币的发行，一般还是以外汇储备为锚，通过出口商换取美元，将美元作为外汇储备存在央行手上，央行印刷等值的人民币投入市场。这在一定程度上，可以维持人民币的汇率稳定，形成一个稳定的外贸环境。实际上，是将人民币锚定在中国生产的工业产品的产值之上，而不是所谓的无锚印钞来的。

但是，随着地方财政的困境，中央政府发行了这次的1万亿特别国债，用来给地方政府补窟窿。而中国的金融体制又不允许央行直接印钱来购买这笔特别国债。加上中国特殊的政治体制，以及金融企业很大程度是在国家的控制之下，所以只能由以国有银行为主体的银行业，以他们手中储户的存款来认购这笔特别国债。这样就形成了一笔巨大的资金占用，用来贷款的钱也变得更少了，于是就拉起了钱荒。

但是，房地产业似乎不可能一下子就恢复景气，而地方政府也很难在短期内找到土地财政的替代方案。这种靠发行特别国债来给地方补窟窿的操作，一旦开始，肯定不会是仅有的一次。从此以后，银行体系是否还受得了，是要打一个大大的问号的。最终，可能仍然需要学习美国，由中央银行来印钱，直接认购国债，也就是所谓的债务货币化。

而到那时候，在一些非主流的up主口中的人民币金元券化，是否就要实现了呢？那也未必，毕竟金元券的时代，中国经历了八年的抗战和三年的内战，经济可以说是一片凋敝，而现在的中国，市场规模世界第一，经济体量世界第二。问题的关键，就看人民币是否也能够在一定程度上，实现像美国的这种国际化。

最近的数据似乎有一些积极的迹象，就是如果从商品贸易的口径来统计的话，在国际贸易中，人民币的使用量已经超过欧元，成为世界第二大货币。美元虽然依然处在垄断地位，但它更主要的是被用在金融市场这个虚拟经济占大头的领域内。所以，即便在未来，人民币不得已随着美国进行债务货币化，可能也只是缓慢贬值，而不会一夜之间就变成金元券。

但是，这样无锚印钞而不进行根本的改革，也仅仅是维持不崩溃而已。如果一个人除了活着，就没有其他的目的，那么对人类或者社会来说，这个人又有什么价值和意义呢？

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Title image: Cheva created with DALL E3 AI

Recently, I've seen some UP masters on YouTube discussing a topic. These UP owners are paying attention to China's financial dynamics, and it turns out that there is a shortage of money in the domestic banking industry. Although I don't work in the financial industry, I was also curious about it, so I went to find out.

I found that this matter can be known to the outside world because there is a professional lending market between banks. In this market, banks can borrow money from each other and pay short-term interest. These short-term loans have a term of about one day, so they are called overnight loans. The interest rate in this market is open to the public, and some people have found that not long ago, this interest rate once rose to 50% per annum, that is, it is impossible to borrow money for a day at a high interest rate of 50% per annum. This shows that banks are now very tight on liquidity.

The emergence of this news is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the stock market and property market, which have a very large demand for funds. If it doesn't plummet, it's already an anomaly, so don't expect it to reverse sharply. In fact, not plummeting means that there is no price in the market.

So, why is there such a money shortage? Many analyses point to the same reason, that is, the policy of issuing an additional 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds by the end of this year, which was introduced not long ago. The purpose of this special treasury bond is to make up for the debt hole of the local government, because the local government's fiscal revenue mainly depends on the land finance from land sales, and now that the real estate industry is in a depression, the land finance has dried up.

This creates a very interesting comparison: the US government, which is also the world's two largest economies, has issued a large number of government bonds, which has caused unprecedented inflation, while the Chinese government has issued an additional 1 trillion yuan of special government bonds, which has caused an unprecedented money shortage, that is, a very obvious deflationary phenomenon.

Why is there such a big difference? Again, this is different from the way the two countries digest their national debt. The largest buyer of U.S. Treasuries is the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve, as the central bank of the United States, can print dollars directly. So, the more Treasury bonds the U.S. issues and the more dollars the Fed prints to buy Treasury bonds, which also creates inflation. However, the U.S. dollar has the status of a world currency that has been formed for a long time after World War II, and its inflation can be absorbed by the whole world, so doing so will not trigger a worthless hyperinflation in a short period of time in the form of the Kuomintang's gold dollar bills.

In China, if the central bank directly buys the treasury bonds of the Ministry of Finance, it is very likely that in less than a year, the farce of the gold yuan bills issued by the Kuomintang on the eve of liberation and before the Kuomintang withdrew from the mainland will be repeated. Therefore, the issuance of China's currency, the renminbi, is generally anchored by foreign exchange reserves, which are exchanged for US dollars by exporters, and the US dollars are stored in the hands of the central bank as foreign exchange reserves, and the central bank prints the equivalent amount of RMB into the market. To a certain extent, this can maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate and form a stable foreign trade environment. In fact, the renminbi is anchored to the output value of industrial products produced in China, rather than the so-called unanchored banknote printing.

However, with the local government's financial woes in jeopardy, the central government issued a special government bond of 1 trillion yuan to fill the hole in the local government. China's financial system does not allow the central bank to print money directly to buy the special treasury bonds. In addition, China's special political system and the fact that financial enterprises are largely under the control of the state can only be subscribed to by the banking industry, which is dominated by state-owned banks, with the deposits of depositors in their hands. As a result, a huge amount of capital is occupied, and the amount of money used for loans becomes smaller, so there is a shortage of money.

However, it seems unlikely that the real estate industry will recover all at once, and it will be difficult for local governments to find alternatives to land finance in the short term. This kind of operation of relying on the issuance of special treasury bonds to fill the holes in the local government will certainly not be the only time once it begins. From now on, there is a big question mark over whether the banking system will be able to stand it. Eventually, it may still be necessary to learn from the United States, where the central bank prints money and subscribes directly to the Treasury bonds, also known as debt monetization.

And by that time, will the RMB gold dollar securitization in the mouths of some non-mainstream UP masters be realized? After all, in the era of gold yuan coupons, China experienced eight years of anti-Japanese war and three years of civil war, and the economy can be said to be a wither, and now China has the world's largest market size and the second largest economy in the world. The crux of the matter is whether the renminbi can also achieve the same kind of internationalization as the United States to a certain extent.

Recent data seems to have some positive signs, that is, if you look at the statistics in terms of commodity trade, in international trade, the use of the yuan has surpassed the euro to become the world's second largest currency. Although the US dollar is still in a monopoly position, it is mainly used in the financial market, which is the majority of the virtual economy. Therefore, even in the future, the renminbi will have to depreciate slowly as the US monetizes its debt, rather than turning it into a gold dollar overnight.

However, such an unanchored printing of money without fundamental reform is only a matter of maintaining the status of non-collapse. If a person has no purpose other than to live, then what is the value and significance of this person to human beings or society?